The resignation of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada on January 6, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in Canada’s political and economic landscape. Coupled with the prorogation of Parliament until March 24, 2025, the development has significant implications for investors and taxpayers. Here’s a closer look at the potential effects.
Capital Gains Inclusion Rate (CGIR): What’s Changed?
In the 2024-2025 federal budget, a proposed increase in the Capital Gains Inclusion Rate to 66 2/3% from the traditional 50% sparked widespread discussion. The adjustment was set to affect corporations, trusts, and individuals earning annual gains over $250,000, effective June 25, 2024.
While draft legislation was introduced in stages between June and September 2024, no final vote or Royal Assent had occurred before the resignation. With Parliament suspended, the legislation remains in limbo. As of now:
- Corporations and trusts continue to see an inclusion rate of 50%.
- Individuals, regardless of exceeding the $250,000 threshold, are taxed at the traditional 50% rate.
This provides temporary relief for investors and businesses, but uncertainty remains. The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) typically administers proposed legislation during prorogation, meaning the CGIR increase could resurface in future sessions.
Broader Investment Implications for Canada
Economic and political volatility in 2024 culminated in a significant drop in the Canadian dollar. Factors such as a divergent economic outlook compared to the U.S., the threat of tariffs from a new U.S. administration, and rising bond yields contributed to this downturn.
Despite the Bank of Canada’s efforts to ease short-term rates, inflationary pressures from imported goods and the steepening yield curve limited its ability to stimulate the economy. However, Trudeau’s resignation introduces the possibility of reduced political uncertainty, which could stabilize:
- The Canadian dollar: Bearish investor sentiment suggests room for recovery if fiscal and political stability is restored.
- Fixed-income markets: Canadian bonds may benefit from a return to a sustainable fiscal trajectory.
What’s Next?
The coming months will be critical as the Liberal Party undergoes a leadership transition and prepares for an early general election. A clearer political direction could alleviate some of the uncertainty, fostering a more favorable environment for investments.
Final Thoughts
Investors should remain vigilant as Canada navigates this transitional period. While the immediate capital gains framework offers stability, longer-term changes could reshape tax planning strategies. Maintaining an informed perspective on political developments will be essential for adapting to potential shifts in the financial landscape.
